Early View of Fall 2025 US Enrollment Trends
Getting a jump on initial reporting, initially focused on public colleges and universities
Phil Hill
September 15, 2025
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From Inside Higher Ed:
Another year, another fall that seems destined for bleak enrollment numbers. Between concerns about international student enrollment and continued skepticism about the value of higher education, some institutions are struggling to fill seats. Unexpected melt has prompted some wealthy, highly selective institutions to pull students off the wait list last minute; for smaller institutions, enrollment declines are leading to layoffs and program cuts.
But for a lucky share, fall 2025 has brought record freshman classes and soaring enrollment projections. In some cases, those record-breaking numbers follow steady growth since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic; in others, they represent a rebound from declines.
Given the advances in gen AI, particularly with the ChatGPT 5 release this summer, it should be feasible to do a broader analysis of the early enrollment signals and see the trends well before any aggregate data release by the National Student Clearinghouse. The following analysis is for public colleges and universities in the US for Fall 2025.
