FAFSA Completion Drop Locked In

The final number of relevance will be roughly 11.2 - 11.4% lower than last year

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Roughly four weeks ago I shared my analysis of the year-over-year (YoY) FAFSA comparisons “showing a drop of 10%+ in completion of student applications”. In that post, this data formed the basis of my prediction of a 5-10% overall enrollment drop for Fall 2024.

Later in the month I described in more detail that the completion drop over time appeared to follow a typical (for social adoptions) sigmoid, or S-curve. This allowed a basic extrapolation for predictive purposes. In that post the data pointed towards an 11.6% drop by early July (and a 11.5% drop by mid-July), the period when most enrollment decisions have been made each year.

Given the importance of this topic, it is worth looking at more recent data. I’ve added the three most recent weeks from NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker, which itself is based on Department of Education data releases, currently through June 28th.

In a nutshell, the data are continuing to fairly closely track the S-curve and that prediction.

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