- On EdTech Newsletter
- Posts
- Friday Follow Up
Friday Follow Up
Lumina-Gallup provide a message, not a survey, and other updates
Phil Hill
May 16, 2025
Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Sign up, and get your own copy of the news that matters sent to your inbox every week. Sign up for the On EdTech newsletter. Interested in additional analysis? Try with our 30-day free trial and Upgrade to the On EdTech+ newsletter.
Message Over Data
In Saturday’s post, Morgan commented on the the Lumina Foundation–Gallup 2025 State of Higher Education Study, sharing some concerns despite the positive headlines.
But while this is good news, the survey raises more questions for me than it answers. It found that interest in pursuing bachelor’s and associate degrees is up, while interest in certificates and industry certifications has softened slightly.
This is certainly interesting, but perhaps it reflects my glass-half-empty outlook that the data left me wondering about several things.
I would go much further in my skepticism. I think that Lumina-Gallup’s messaging around the survey has jumped the shark. No longer are they interested in doing an annual survey and seeing what the data say, Lumina-Gallup instead has a message to give: Wow, interest in higher ed is really great despite negative news. Just look at the report title page.
The short introduction has this pithy summary of what you are supposed to take away [emphasis added].
As colleges and universities are reporting that undergraduate enrollment in the U.S. had rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels last fall, the 2025 State of Higher Education study confirms that U.S. adults without degrees or credentials still overwhelmingly believe that education beyond high school is valuable and essential for career success.
That word still is trying to do a lot of work here, as it implies not just a snapshot but a longitudinal analysis. But the first chart already caused me to question the message if you compare to previous years.
Couldn’t you interpret this finding as the perception of the value of higher education dropped for all credential types for adults without a college degree? In one year, we’re seeing a 4-6% drop across the board.
What Lumina-Gallup highlighted in the report was that unenrolled adults have increased their consideration of entering a bachelor’s or associate’s degree program, which is good news. But consider is not the same thing as I have evaluated options and plan to attend. And if you look at the results of the question about likelihood to attend from both the 2025 report (survey taken in October 2024) with the 2024 report (one year earlier), again you see drops across the board.
The overall likelihood of pursuing higher education dropped from 51% to 48% in the past year, with all of that drop in the “very likely” category.
For ages 18-25, the drop was 8% (65% in 2024 report to 57% in 2025).
I do not believe that artificially, or naively, promoting a positive spin is helpful. Honest evaluation of the data is what we need.
