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A lot happened in higher education this week, and Phil and I have covered many of those events in some of our other newsletter posts. Lawsuits, enrollment growth, the OPM market, and more. But what did I read?
Ok, Boomer
Lightcast recently published a report on the changing demographics of the U.S. labor market, offering valuable insights and additional context to the demographic shifts affecting higher education in the U.S.
The report’s core argument is that, due to changing demographics—such as an aging population and a low birth rate—we will face significant challenges in the labor market, particularly in filling critical jobs across industries like construction and healthcare. While the report covers a wide range of topics, I want to focus on a few key points that I found particularly insightful and relevant for higher education.
Lightcast’s broader societal perspective helps frame the shifts we're seeing in higher education within a larger context. For example, when zooming out, the decline in birth rates has been a gradual trend over time, more like a slope than a sudden cliff. This nuanced view is critical for understanding how long-term demographic changes impact both labor and education sectors. Many of the charts in the report are thought provoking, definitely go take a look.
Reading the report through an education lens tells a fascinating story about the Baby Boomer generation and how much of what we consider "normal" today was shaped by the sheer size of that generation. Because there were so many Baby Boomers, education became a crucial way to get ahead.
The demands and structure of today’s labor market were set by the conditions formed by the Baby Boomers.
When they were in tight competition for jobs, they differentiated themselves from their peers by pursuing higher education. And for decades, the strategy worked. Highly educated Boomers got better jobs, made higher incomes, and received better benefits than those without a degree. But this demand for higher education also fundamentally transformed the market. It made college education not just a path to career success but also a point of pride and a highly sought-after life experience for millions of Americans. And as a result, the number of jobseekers with college degrees now far surpasses the number of job openings that require one
This emphasized for me that the world many of us grew up in—where college attendance was increasingly expected and seen as the key to success—was, in many ways, an anomaly, a specific set of circumstances driven by the impact of the Baby Boomer generation. Going forward, we face a very different world and must rethink some of the assumptions we've taken for granted, such as the size and structure of the higher education sector.