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And we’re back. Not that we ever left, given Phil’s update on FVT and GE, but we are officially kicking off 2026. I hope you had a great break. Mine was mixed, but I did catch up on some interesting reading. Here goes.
Masters of their domain
A report from Validated Insights adds useful color to our understanding of the master’s degree market, especially online master’s programs , even though it includes one egregiously bad chart. I took away several insights from the report.
Growth, especially online
This segment has been growing like gangbusters, especially since the pandemic.
Over the past 50 years, the conferral of master’s degrees has increased 3.9-fold, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8%. From 2000 to 2020 alone completions of these programs grew 82.1%.
[snip]
The number of master’s degree programs available in the United States increased by 2.4% between 2022 and 2024, reaching 42,346
The downside is that enrollment hasn’t kept pace with program expansion, though success, as measured by degree completions, is up.
During this interval, [2022-2024] the average enrollment per program decreased by 6.0% to 94 students, and the average new enrollment per program fell by 4.4% to 20 students. Conversely, the average number of completions per program saw a 4.5% increase, rising to 22 degrees.
The gap between intention and follow through
I want to write far more posts than I actually publish, and potential master’s students show a similar tendency. Drawing on workforce survey data, Validated Insights report that about 50% of the current workforce say they wants to change careers, yet career changers represent only 12% of actual master’s enrollments. To me, this suggests universities should exercise restraint when interpreting stated demand signals as real market behavior or assuming that career change is the primary driver of master’s demand.
