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Reflections on End User Changes
Change management for LMS switches and post-Covid online enrollment adoption
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I have long appreciated the Teaching Online Podcast (TOPcast) from Tom Cavanagh and Kelvin Thompson, and I was invited to be on today’s episode discussing both the LMS market and online enrollment trends. It turns out that both topics led to discussions on change management - dealing with the needs and expectations of end users in a period of change. Listen to the whole episode, it was fun. You can also see the YouTube version.
On the topic of LMS switches, I noted how the nature of change was different than 10 or 15 years ago [emphasis added].
Tom: Well, and the cost of switching is still really high as far as just effort and time.
Phil: I had a conversation about that today. It's high, but it's not what it was 10 to 15 years ago.
Tom: That's true.
Phil: Back in the days before LTI was standard and back before cloud-based systems, it was much more difficult then, because it might take you six months. Back in 2008, if you switched from one LMS to another, you would probably, an institution, spend six months setting up the hardware to host the new system, testing out initial integrations, and then you could do a pilot with a school. These days, I've seen schools start pilots within a month of picking a new system. So, it's dramatically different.
But the counter argument, and this is the conversation I had today, LMS, it is existential to universities. It is the home of where students digitally experience most of their education, so you've got to make sure you... It is a big investment to change your virtual presence. So, it's a change management issue, whereas 15 years ago, it was much more an IT issue to switch.
On the topic of online enrollments, I described how post-Covid numbers in US higher education dropped from 2020 and 2021, but that they were higher than they would have been with Covid.
One of the things that I pointed out is I did a straight-line graphic because online's been growing. Whether it's just a couple of online classes in a face-to-face program or a fully online program, that enrollment's been growing nationwide for at least 12 years. And actually, before the COVID, it was very linear, its growth, and then COVID changes everything. But I did a straight-line projection of the past linear trend to today, and showed that we've now settled into a state where it's greater than it would've been if we had just kept going on without COVID. So, in other words, COVID had its spikes, but it also pushed the online course and online program enrollment up, particularly as a percentage of student enrollments. That's the net result.
This answer seemed to be of particular interest to Cavanagh and Thompson based on their wrap-up discussion, so I thought it would useful to share a graphic that shows what I was talking about. The following is from Fall 2022 IPEDS data, and the orange line shows the percentage of students taking all face-to-face courses, while the green line shows the percentage of students taking at least one online course per term (mix-and-match with face-to-face, or fully online).
You can see that from 2012 through 2019, the trend was fairly linear. 2020 and 2021 were the Covid years with a jump to online and then a pullback. What I have done is overlaid a grey line taking the pre-Covid trend and extrapolating it forward to show how Covid increased the adoption of online education (all data show that the green line increases again in 2023 and beyond). And the increase is notable, approximately a 12% jump.
I then described an admittedly optimistic change management perspective.
Phil: It's interesting to me because there was so much to discussion during COVID about how students hated online, hated “Zoom University,” and faculty hated [it]... There was a lot of press about, “Oh, they finally see how bad it is.” It's the opposite. People finally realize, this is what online can do. But a lot of times, faculty are saying, "Well, I see what online can do. I wish it would do this better." But instead of just saying online's bad, now they're saying, "Help me make something even better." So, I realize it sounds a little bit too optimistic, but I think people are now like, "Let's figure out how to make it better." And it's increased. [snip]
It's one thing to criticize something that you don't know. And I think we saw a lot of that pre-COVID. Faculty who had never taught online, and complained about online, how it's not as good as face-to-face. Heck, we just saw an op-ed on Inside Higher Ed last week that made that same argument. Although it was somebody who tried one course.
Tom: It's always somebody who just tries one course who writes…
Phil: I know. And then it's like, let me write... I've spent more time writing about it than figuring out how to design my course properly
In the world of EdTech, the ability of institutional leadership to deal with end-users’ changing experiences is such a crucial part of whether strategic initiatives succeed or fail.
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