Signs of Level or Even Rising Fall 2024 Enrollment in US Higher Education

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I guess I should start by apologizing for the whiplash in coverage on US higher education enrollment forecasts with the FAFSA fiasco impact. Initially, I thought that the overall Fall 2024 enrollment numbers could drop more than Covid numbers based on multiple reports from enrollment analysts, but more recently I have noted the growing number of institutions reporting growing or even record enrollments for fall term. Or at least strong increases for first-time students. Yes, there are still plenty of schools looking at existential drops in enrollments, but there is a growing Haves and Have Nots situation going on.

Make no mistake, the FAFSA fiasco is real and will have an impact - it just doesn’t appear to be a simple drop in enrollments across the board or in aggregate.

Fitz Ratings

Fitz is a credit ratings agency that looks at corporate and institutional debt profiles - what is the likelihood of entity A paying off loan or bond B? As such, Fitz (along with S&P) work with a large number of higher education institutions to provide bond ratings, enabling colleges and universities to raise debt financing. As part of this analysis, the institution must share fairly detailed and up-to-date financials with Fitz.

In other words, Fitz can provide insight into college and university financials (which include enrollment numbers) across hundreds and hundreds of institutions.

Late last week, Fitz had a webinar discussing its research, titled “Pressure Mounts for U.S. Colleges As Students Head Back to School.” The headline is that even with modest enrollment gains, many colleges and universities face worsening finances.

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