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It is officially the dog days of summer here in Utah. I am taking shelter in my cool basement TV room, watching a lot of cricket.
Starting apprenticeships is easier than completing them
In the US, you can’t throw a rock right now without hitting a post or announcement declaring apprenticeships the next great hope for helping young people enter the workforce. For example, this from a recent article titled “Here’s Why Momentum for Paid Apprenticeships Is Surging.”
States and universities are providing new blueprints for making college-based, paid apprenticeships the backbone of new workforce pipelines.
Recent Australian data suggest that we temper some of this enthusiasm. The US is currently celebrating its ability to get people into apprenticeships; Australia reminds us that creating an apprenticeship is different from sustaining one long enough for someone to complete it.
Data from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) show that, across all occupations, Australian apprenticeship completion rates have declined over the past decade. The four-year rate has fallen particularly sharply, from 58.1% for the 2012 cohort to 42.9% for the 2021 cohort. Six-year completion has been more stable but also remains below its 2012 level.
But the aggregate trend conceals an important divide. Six-year completion among trade apprentices has improved for every cohort since 2015, while four-year completion among non-trade apprentices and trainees has declined for three consecutive cohorts.
Trade apprenticeships include occupations such as motor mechanic, carpenter, electrician, cook, and hairdresser. Non-trade pathways include clerical and administrative workers, community and personal service workers, sales workers, managers, and machinery operators.
The 6-year trade completion rate was 58.7% for the 2019 commencing cohort, up slightly from 58.3% compared with the 2018 cohort. Trade completion rates have increased for every commencing cohort since 2015, indicating a positive long-term trend.
For non-trade apprentices and trainees, the 4-year completion rate was 42.7% for the 2021 commencing cohort, down from 48.8% compared with the 2020 cohort, and the third consecutive decline. This decline aligns with changes to government incentives and changes in the occupational training mix.
The occupational pattern raises an uncomfortable question about incentives. Did the new funding and incentives available for non-trade occupations during the pandemic create durable training pathways, or did they encourage employers to register workers in apprenticeships that neither party had a particularly strong reason to complete?
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