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The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Lone Star College System, and Ivy Tech all appear among the thirty largest institutions in Phil’s latest IPEDS update. But their enrollment changes tell very different stories about the role of online learning.
At Illinois, exclusively online programs (aka Exclusive DE) account for most of the university’s recent graduate enrollment growth. At Lone Star, exclusively online enrollment grew even as on-campus enrollment fell. Ivy Tech moved in the opposite direction, adding students overall while exclusively online enrollment fell slightly.
Those differences become visible when we look beyond institutional size and track how enrollment has changed over time. Online growth can account for most of an institution’s expansion, contribute to growth across several modes, or offset losses elsewhere—sometimes without preventing an overall decline.
Looking more broadly at the largest institutions reveals substantial differences across sectors and levels of study. At two-year institutions, online gains overwhelmingly accompany enrollment losses elsewhere. Four-year undergraduate institutions show more varied patterns, with growth most often occurring mainly outside exclusively online enrollment or across multiple modalities. At the graduate level, online accounts for most of the growth much more frequently than it does among undergraduates. Below, I examine these differences using 12-month unduplicated headcount data from IPEDS, from 2019-20 to 2024-25 as the comparison period.
How to read these charts and tables
The charts below compare changes in fully online (Exclusive DE), on-campus (a combination of No DE courses and Some DE courses), and total enrollments. The five-year comparison captures both enrollment growth and changes in the mix of enrollment following the pandemic. I focus on nonprofit institutions because changes within the for-profit sector complicate comparisons over this period.
Each chart shows 30 institutions for readability; the analysis and category counts cover the 50 largest institutions in each group. On EdTech+ subscribers can use our IPEDS tool to explore the complete data, compare institutions, and examine the underlying changes themselves.
The patterns
Across four-year undergraduate, two-year, and graduate enrollment, six patterns emerge. The table below distinguishes them according to whether total enrollment grew or declined and how exclusively online enrollment contributed to that change.
Pattern | Five-Year Enrollment Pattern | Impact |
|---|---|---|
Online-Led Expansion | Total enrollment grows; Exclusive DE accounts for 75–100% of growth. | Online provides most institutional growth |
Broad-Based Expansion | Total enrollment grows; Exclusive DE accounts for at least 25% but less than 75% of growth. | Online and other enrollment categories both contribute materially |
Online-Light Expansion | Total enrollment grows; Exclusive DE accounts for less than 25% of growth, remains flat, or declines. | Most growth comes from campus or mixed mode growth |
Online-Offset Expansion | Total enrollment grows; Exclusive DE growth exceeds total growth. | Online gains exceed losses elsewhere |
Online Growth Amid Contraction | Total enrollment declines; Exclusive DE grows. | The institution contracts while shifting toward Exclusive DE |
Broad Contraction | Total and Exclusive DE enrollment both decline. | Online enrollment contracts along with the institution |
Two-year institutions: online growth amid broader contraction
Among the 50 largest two-year institutions, 41 gained exclusively online students while enrollment outside that category declined. At 19 institutions, those online gains were insufficient to prevent an overall enrollment decline; at 22, they exceeded the losses elsewhere and produced net growth.
Online Growth Amid Contraction: Dallas College, Houston Community College, and East LA College
Online-Offset Expansion: Lone Star College System, Northern Virginia Community College, and Bakersfield College
Online-Light Expansion: Ivy Tech and Colorado Online
Broad-Based Expansion: Collin County CCD and College of DuPage
The common thread is a shift in enrollment composition, including at institutions that grew overall. At 41 of these 50 institutions, exclusively online enrollment increased while enrollment outside that category declined. Whether online gains exceeded those losses determined which institutions expanded and which contracted. Total enrollment growth alone therefore conceals how widespread this shift has been.
The geographic concentration deserves further investigation. Of the 19 institutions where online grew amid overall contraction, many are in Texas and California. Without comparing those figures with the states’ representation among the 50 institutions, however, we cannot tell whether the pattern is disproportionately concentrated there.
Ivy Tech provides a useful exception, with substantial overall growth and a slight decline in exclusively online enrollment. Taken together, these cases show why community college enrollment recovery needs to be examined by modality. Institutions can grow while their enrollment mix moves in quite different directions.
Graduate enrollment moves the relationship in the other direction: online is more frequently associated with net institutional expansion than with an attempt to offset contraction elsewhere.
That's the sharpest of the three stories, but not the only one. Four-year undergraduate enrollment is far more varied, and graduate runs the opposite way—online in that case more often means real expansion, not a hedge against decline. The full breakdown of where all 50 institutions fall in each group and the side-by-side summary table are below for On EdTech+ subscribers.
Institutions and associations can commission this analysis for their own enrollment status and peer group. On EdTech+ subscribers can see a full breakdown of where all 50 institutions fall in each group and the side-by-side summary table, and they can see a version of this chart in the Institution Dashboard visualization.
If you're here for the big picture, one line to carry: headline growth and online growth are no longer the same story, and at many institutions they're moving in opposite directions. Total enrollment tells you whether a school grew—not how, or whether online is holding it up. Thanks for reading, and for sharing.
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