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The “death of the LMS” and “SaaS apocalypse” arguments share an underlying assumption: AI makes software so easy to create that traditional software business models become obsolete. Morgan and I challenged that argument for the LMS last December, and I extended the discussion to EdTech more broadly in April. Institutions pay for dependable services, support, and ongoing development. The ability to generate code does not eliminate those needs.

Now Stripe’s business data substantially undercut the market apocalypse argument. Across the SaaS businesses it tracks, growth has continued and even accelerated. This strengthens our argument about why the business model persists. But it also raises a more useful question: where should we look for AI to fundamentally change EdTech?

I think the bigger impact will come from redefining interfaces and experiences. In “The Left Column Isn’t Permanent,” I described systems that build an experience around what someone needs to accomplish, instead of requiring users to navigate familiar screens and menus. Google’s work on generative UI gives that prediction clearer terminology and a concrete education example. Whether the changes come from incumbent vendors, startups, or bespoke university projects, this is where I expect the more significant impact: changing how people use EdTech, well beyond making existing product designs cheaper to reproduce.

SaaS EdTech product categories will likely survive even in the interface through which users access the system changes significantly.