Fall 2025 Enrollment Estimates
All data pointing to significant increases year-over-year
Phil Hill
October 29, 2025
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Given the big questions about enrollments and institutional health at US colleges and universities, and given the unknown status of whether the National Student Clearinghouse will publish mid-term estimates this year, I have been tracking estimates since September 15th. My summary at the time was a surprise increase appears likely.
Contrary to concerns about enrollment declines, fall 2025 appears to show some record freshman classes and predominantly positive trends for public institutions. As colleges and universities across the United States finalize their Fall 2025 enrollment figures, early data and application trends from public institutions suggest a complex and potentially turbulent picture.
Many report record highs, particularly in new student cohorts, with overall growth around 2-6% in systems providing details. Granular breakdowns reveal stronger growth in undergraduate (especially first-year) vs. graduate enrollments, significant online expansions at larger institutions, and flagship/land-grant universities often outpacing regionals through targeted recruitment and program innovations.
Since that time, the news releases continue to point in the same direction, and this September 26th post added more description of the apparent trends (there’s more at the link than the excerpt below).